Could Anthropic's AI speedup get faster still? METR says it cannot rule that out

METR says it cannot rule out a substantial further acceleration in the next 6 months, and it did not find convincing bottlenecks for the next 12. It also says it may be missing some. This is its judgment, not a measurement, and its forecasts for future models were redacted.

Why it matters: If the speedup compounds, the gap between frontier releases could shrink quickly, but the evidence is partly hidden.

Who is saying it: METR, in its Nov 5 reports, based on non-public data at Anthropic that readers cannot fully check.

What would settle it: Outside benchmark trends and METR or Anthropic's next assessments over the coming 6 to 12 months.